Computer Tools & Software: Goal-Oriented Zoning ("GOZ™") What is GOZ™? GOZ™ is a computer program, designed and distributed by the Regional Planning Partnership (www.planningpartners.org), that calculates the "build out" impacts of existing zoning ordinances and enables the user to construct and test alternative zoning scenarios. The Regional Planning Partnership (RPP) has designed GOZ™ in order to improve planning practice by providing an affordable, accessible, and easy-to-use tool for developing capacity-based plans and zoning ordinances. The Regional Planning Partnership views GOZ™ as an informational / educational tool particularly useful for local planners and stakeholders engaged in master planning, watershed planning, and the State Plan endorsement process. Why is GOZ™ useful? Municipal master plans typically establish good goals relating to managing infrastructure, protecting natural resources, and preserving community character. Unfortunately, a disconnect often exists between these planning goals, the zoning ordinance, and the actual outcomes of the land development process. Most people claim that they do not want dispersed low-density development, or "sprawl," but sprawl frequently results from the existing planning process. RPP believes that the key problem is that the local planning process often does not adequately consider the impacts of development on transportation systems, public water and sewer systems, or natural resource systems. Local officials may not be familiar with impact analysis techniques, may not have the resources for such analysis, or may not understand the benefits of capacity-based planning. Municipalities thus often prepare and adopt master plans and zoning ordinances without analyzing the impacts of future development. There is a need for planning tools and information for guiding decision-making that implements master plans and achieves the municipality's planning goals. How does GOZ™ work? GOZ™ is a custom application of the ArcView GIS software program. It supplements ArcView with several data sets, a unique user interface, and programming scripts written specifically for use by GOZ™. It relies on data and maps available from state and federal agencies as well as data and maps created by The Regional Planning Partnership staff. GOZ™ allows the user to calculate the impacts of build-out under the following scenarios: Existing municipal zoning Alternative zoning scenario based upon minor revisions to existing zoning; The Regional Planning Partnership's VISION 2050 "smart growth" scenario (central New Jersey only); Alternative zoning scenario based upon user-defined mixed-use centers. For any scenario, GOZ™ calculates the amount and type of residential and non-residential development that would occur if all developable land were developed, i.e., build-out. Then, based upon the projected amount and type of development, the model calculates development impacts in several fields, including traffic and air pollution, public water and sewer demand, impervious surface and water pollution, and public capital costs. The model incorporates generally-accepted impact assessment indicators, formulae, and multipliers to calculate development impacts. The model provides the ability to quickly modify, calculate, and compare the impacts of alternative zoning scenarios. The user can change zoning classifications, developable land, impact multipliers, or zoning district boundaries with relative ease, and the model will calculate the impacts of the new scenario. GOZ™ Calculations The impacts tested by GOZ™ cover the following areas: Housing units Non-residential development Population Employment School-age population Vehicle trips Vehicle miles traveled Drinking water demand Wastewater treatment demand Water pollution from run-off Air pollution from vehicles Road capital costs * Utility capital costs * School capital costs * * These impacts are calculated only for residential development. GOZ™ Case Studies Residential Build-Out Analysis Great Swamp Watershed Association The Great Swamp Watershed Association (GSWA) is using GOZ™ to analyze the ten towns in Morris and Somerset County that make up its 55 sq. mi. watershed. The GSWA intends to calculate the impacts of residential build-out and share this information with Environmental Commissions, Planning Boards, and citizens of each of the ten towns. The GSWA hopes that this information will serve as an educational tool and as a guide to considering potential zoning revisions. The GSWA believes the information produced by the GOZ™ analysis will help the "10 Town Committee" (part of the Morris County leadership group, Morris 2000) achieve its goal of planning smart growth for the watershed. Contact : Karen Patterson Great Swamp Watershed Association 973 966-1900 Reducing Sprawl through Integrated Regional Land Use Planning National Center for Neighborhood and Brownfields Redevelopment, Rutgers University The National Center for Neighborhood and Brownfields Redevelopment at Rutgers University has a license agreement with RPP to use the GOZ™ model in this project, which involves assessing issues related to redevelopment proposals in the "river towns" of Somerset County. These towns (Bound Brook, South Bound Brook, Somerville, Manville, and Raritan, and part of Bridgewater) suffered heavy flooding damage from Hurricane Floyd in September 1999. As a result, Somerset County has been working with the towns to prepare redevelopment plans. The Geraldine R. Dodge Foundation has provided the Center with a grant to examine the environmental, transportation, and infrastructure systems capacity of these towns to assimilate new development. Of particular interest is the impact of development and redevelopment projects upon the future demands for roads, water and sewer systems, and schools. Contact: Christine Danis, Project Manager National Center for Neighborhood and Brownfields Redevelopment, Rutgers University 732 932-4101 ext. 659 Somerset County Smart Growth Strategic Plan Somerset County Planning Board and National Center for Neighborhood and Brownfields Redevelopment, Rutgers University Somerset County has received a Smart Growth Planning Grant from the state to prepare a county-wide Smart Growth Strategic Plan. The planning process will involve constructing and evaluating alternative future development scenarios. As part of the license agreement between the Center and RPP for the Dodge project, the Center will also use the GOZ™ Model in this smart growth project. In the meantime, the County has hired RPP to conduct Phase I of the smart growth project, which focuses on collecting background data, conducting public outreach, and identifying key planning principles, issues, and priorities. Phase II of the smart growth project will focus on evaluating alternative development scenarios and developing the preferred scenario for the final Strategic Plan. Contact: Laurette Kratina, Principal Planner Somerset County Planning Board (908) 231-7021 Frequently Asked Questions about GOZ™ Q:What is a build-out calculation? A: Build-out (or zoning yield) analysis refers to calculating the amount and type of development that would occur if all developable land within an area were developed in accordance with the prevailing zoning classifications. Q:Does build-out analysis predict future development? A: No. Build-out analysis is intended to provide a potential vision of an area based upon the amount of developable land and the existing zoning. The actual type and amount of future development will depend on numerous other factors including economic and business conditions, developer preferences, re-zoning and variances, and other development regulations. Q:What is impact assessment? A:Impact assessment calculates the impacts generated by a certain amount and type of development. Numerous methods are available to assess development impacts in categories such as traffic, water and sewer demand, water quality, and public costs. Q:How does the GOZ™ model differ from other models? A:This model conducts build-out calculations and impact assessment, linked to mapping features through the ArcView GIS program. The user is able to easily modify zoning districts, change zoning classifications, and revise impact multiplier assumptions, and the model quickly calculates the impacts of alternative zoning scenarios. Q:Does this model work on the parcel level? A:No. The mapping layers are not parcel-based. The lowest geographic level of analysis is individual zoning districts (some of which could be as small as a parcel). Thus, the model is not intended to serve as a site planning tool. Q:Does the model identify public facilities and services required by new development? A: No. While the model calculates impacts in areas such as traffic generation, it does not directly link these impacts to specific facilities, such as roads. If users desire to calculate the possible need for infrastructure improvements, they can use impacts calculated by the GOZ™ model with other models for capacity analysis. Q:Does the model consider the redevelopment potential of an area in its build-out analysis? A: The model enables the user to apply "redevelopment factor" to any zoning districts, which will increase the amount of development and impacts from that district. These redevelopment factors and impacts are not site-specific, however. The next version of the model will improve the calculation of redevelopment impacts. Learn More about GOZ™ Contact the Regional Planning Partnership for more information and assistance on GOZ™. Email: rpp2050@aol.com Web: www.planningpartners.org Mail: 870 Mapleton Road, Princeton, NJ 08540 Phone: 609.452.1717